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statistical report with economic concept and theory

statistical report with economic concept and theory

 

Introduction

This assignment consists of two reports. The first report involves extracting economic data from internet sources. It will also examine your ability to present data using an Excel spreadsheet and interpret the data using appropriate economic theory. It is worth 40% of the assignment mark. The second report will cover survey analysis using SPSS. It will assess your ability to set up and conduct hypothesis tests and to interpret their results. The second report will be worth 60% of the assignment mark. This assignment represents 75% of the overall module mark.

The report should include the following sections: • Title page
• Table of contents
• Report 1 (Excel)

  • Report 2 (SPSS)

Part 1 and Part 2 should both have an Introduction, Conclusion, References and Ap- pendix.

Information about Submission:

copy does not have to be submitted. You will need to produce your work in a single Word document. This will mean that any data and charts you produce in Excel or SPSS will need to be imported (copied) into Word. I recommend to upload a pdf version of your report onto turnitin to ensure that all graphs and tables are correctly displayed. Furthermore,

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Turnitin only accepts pdf or word (.doc/.docx) documents. Any other formats cannot be opened and will receive a mark of 0.

1 Data analysis using Excel (Report 1)

You are asked to prepare a statistical brief about the economic development of the United Kingdom for the period 2005 to 2018. You will have to compare the development in the UK with one other country. Do not choose the other country randomly – you will have to provide a justification why you think that the comparison is of interest for a wider audience.

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Report format and layout

Make sure that Report 1 contains the following sections:

  • Introduction • Main Body • Conclusion • References • Appendix

The work should be neat and tidy and easy to read. Also, it is very important to use a consistent reference style for both in-text citations and the list of references displayed at the end of the report. Any data should go into the appendix. Note that also the data in the appendix has to be presented neatly and easy to read. Do not just copy and paste the data from the statistical webpage. This part should not be longer than 5 pages including any appendices.

You will have to complete the following tasks:

Task 1 – Data Collection

Download the following data from the OECD website into Excel:
1. Annual real GDP data for the UK for the period 2005 – 2018.

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  1. Annual real GDP data for one other countries of your choice for the period 2005 – 2018.
  2. Inflation rate, Consumer prices – all items, for the period 2005 – 2018 (for the UK and the other country you have selected)

You will realise that there are many different types of GDP available on the OECD webpage. It does not matter if you select the output, the expenditure or the income approach – they all will be very similar. Select the approach that is available. The real GDP is often referred to as GDP at constant prices. To be able to compare the GDP of the UK with the GDP of another country, you have to ensure that both are measured in the same currency, e.g. US Dollars. With respect to inflation, select the measure ”Growth on previous period”.

Add all the raw data into the appendix of Part 1. Do not forget to present the data in a user-friendly way. Also state precisely which data you have selected (Hint: Meta data information, which can be accessed through clicking on the ‘i’ next to the variable name.)

 

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Task 2 – Calculations and descriptive statistics

  • Calculate the annual growth rate of UK real GDP. The formula for the growth

rate is:

GDP growtht = GDPt − GDPt−1 (1) GDPt−1

Add the column / row of economic growth to your raw dataset in the appendix.

  • Calculate the mean economic growth and inflation rate.
  • Present numeric descriptive statistics (Mean, Median, Max, Min, Std. Dev. and Skewness) for the level of real GDP, real GDP growth, inflation rate. The descrip- tive statistics table has to be presented in the main body of your report.

Task 3 – Graphical Methods

You have to produce three charts:

  1. Create one chart that compares the real GDP growth rate from 2005 – 2018 of the UK with the other country you have selected.

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  1. Create one chart that compares mean real GDP growth rates for the UK and the other country you have selected.
  2. Create one chart which shows the relationship between real GDP growth and inflation. Advice: Pool the data for the UK and the other country you have selected.

You have to choose the chart type which you think is most appropriate. Charts have to be clearly labelled and presented. The charts have to be included in the main body of the report.

Task 4 – Write a statistical brief

Using the charts and the numerical descriptive statistics to write a report on the economic development of the UK since 2006. You have to describe your charts and explain any patterns of interest. Good answers will be able to link the observations with economic theory. Include the following in each section of the report:

Introdction: Provide a outline of the topic of your report and highlight its relevance. Also, justify the selection of the other country (word limit: 150).

10 marks

Main Body: This part contains your analysis and interpretation of your findings. All charts and the descriptive statistics table have to be presented in this section. Do not use bullet points – this is a report not a power point presentation (word limit: 600).

65 marks

Conclusion: Conclude your report by summarising your findings, provide an outlook for further investigations and / or policy recommendations (word limit: 150).

10 marks

References: Add a reference section at the end of the report conforming to the (British) Harvard-style referencing. Present here all the source you have used throughout this report.

Appendix: Include all the raw data in this section. Ensure that the data is well pre- sented. Add here also any formulas and commands you have used to generate your statistics.

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The overall formatting of the report, e.g. how the references and the data in the appendix are presented, is worth 15 marks.

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2 Survey analysis using SPSS (Report 2)

This part is worth 60% of the overall assignment mark. This part of the report should not exceed 7 typed pages of A4 including appendices. On Blackboard you will find a data file (CPS91.sav) from the Current Population Survey 91 under the section “Individual Coursework”. See below for details about the survey. You have to use this dataset for your report.

Report 2 should have the following structure:

  • Aims of the investigation and hypotheses (Introduction) • Descriptive statistics
    • Hypothesis tests
    • Summary/Conclusion
  • References • Appendix

Complete the following tasks:

2.1 Aims of the investigation and hypotheses (20 marks)

Using the Current Population Survey 91, identify the aims of the investigation and hy- potheses of your report. Choose three research questions and highlight their importance. Show that you can think like an economist!

(Maximum 250 words)

2.2 Descriptive statistics (10 marks)

Generate descriptive statistics using tables and graphs with SPSS. You have to provide information for the reader about the sample and variables of interests.

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(Maximum 100 words)

2.3 Hypothesis tests (50 marks)

Set up and conduct hypotheses tests and interpret the results. This section should con- tain three hypothesis tests. At least one must be cross tabulation tables and associated χ2-tests and at least one should be a comparison-of-means test. The analysis of your results is very important. Do not just present the statistics with no explanations of what they show! You must discuss the results and not just present them! Use economic theory to explain your results.

2.4 Summary/Conclusion (10 marks)

Summarise your main results and provide conclusions.

(Maximum 150 words) The formatting of the report is important and worth 10 marks

More Information on the Data

A reduced form of the Current Population Survey (CPS, Current Population Survey March 1991 Tape Technical Documentation / prepared by Data User Services Division, Data Access and Use Staff, Bureau of the Census. -Washington: The Bureau, 1991) is the dataset for this assignment. In the following a shortened description of the CPS is presented (Source: http://wonder.cdc.gov/wonder/sci_data/census/cps/type_ txt/cps91.asp, accessed on 06/02/20):

Type of File: Microdata; unit of observation is individuals, families, and households.

Universe Description: The universe is the civilian non-institutional population of the United States living in housing units and members of the Armed Forces living in civilian housing units on a military base or in a household not on a military base. A probability sample is used in selecting housing units.

Subject-Matter Description This file, also known as the Annual Demographic File, provides the usual monthly labor force data, but in addition, provides supplemental

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(Maximum 600 words)

data on work experience, income, etc. Data on employment and income refer to the preceding year, although demographic data refer to the time of the survey. Characteristics such as age, sex, race, household relationship, and Spanish origin are shown for each person in the household enumerated.

The reduced CPS for 1991 contains 23 variables and has a sample of 5,634. For your coursework you will need to select variables of your interest. The tables below sum- marises the variables in the dataset. It is up you to use which variables you use!

Variable name Variable description
husage Husband’s age
husunion =1 if husband part of an union
husearns Husband’s weekly earnings
huseduc Husband’s years of schooling
husblck =1 if husband is black
hushisp =1 if husband is hispanic
hushrs Husband’s weekly hours of work
kidge6 =1 if there is a child 6 years or older
earns Wife’s weekly earnings
age Wife’s age
black =1 if wife is black
educ Wife’s years of schooling
hispanic =1 if wife is hispanic
union =1 if wife is part of an union
faminc Annual family income
husexp Husband’s work experience (huseduc – husage – 6)
exper Wife’s work experience (age – educ – 6)
kidlt6 =1 if there is a child younger than 6 years old
hours Wife’s weekly hours of work
nwifeinc Non-wife family annual income, in $1000s
inlf =1 if wife is in labor force
hrwage Hourly wage of wife (earns/hours)
hushrwage Hourly wage of husband (husearns/hushrs)

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