Maths and Statistics Calculations

Maths, physics and statistics calculations

Starting in late 2007, the world’s advanced economies slumped into recession, often referred to as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  Canada joined the US, UK and much of Europe in watching real GDP fall for at least two quarters.

Part A.  Gathering, preparing and presenting data (3 points)

 

To collect data on the recent recession for Canada, carry out the following instructions:

  1. Go to Statistics Canada’s website
  2. Find National Gross Domestic Product, expenditure-based, Canada, quarterly (36-10-0104-01)
  3. Click Add/Remove Data tab
  4. Select “Chained (2012) dollars”, “Seasonally adjusted at annual rates”, Retrieve data for the following Estimates
  5. GDP at market prices
  6. Household Final Consumption Expenditure (Consumption)
  7. General Governments Final Consumption Expenditure PLUS General Governments Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Government). You will have to prepare the summed data yourself.  Adding these will provide an approximation that is comparable to US data.
  8. Business Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Investment)
  9. Exports of goods and services (Exports)
  10. Imports of goods and services (Imports)
  11. Place the data in a spreadsheet (Excel or similar)
  12. Using formulas, construct an index of the data with 2007Q4 as the base time period (all series should equal 100 in 2007Q4). Your index should start in 2006Q1 and end in 2019Q4.
  13. Repeat for: GDP, Consumption, Government, Investment, Exports, Imports
  14. Plot a line chart for each index

 

To collect data on the recent recession for the USA, carry out the following instructions:

  1. Go to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Interactive Data site
  2. Under Tools, Select “Interactive Data”, then “National Data”, then “GDP & Personal Income” then “Begin using…”
  3. Under “Domestic Product and Income”, find the table for “Real Gross Domestic Product (A) (Q)” – table 1.1.6
  4. Under Options, select quarterly data, starting in 2006Q1 and ending in 2020Q1
  5. Download the data into a spreadsheet (Excel or similar)
  6. GDP at market prices
  7. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Consumption)
  8. Governments Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment (Government)
  9. Gross Private Domestic Investment (Investment)
  10. Exports
  11. Imports
  12. Using formulas, construct an index of the data with 2007Q4 as the base time period (all series should equal 100 in 2007Q4). Your index should start in 2006Q1 and end in 2020Q1
  13. Repeat for: GDP, Consumption, Government, Investment, Exports, Imports
  14. Plot a line chart for each index

 

With these examples and the charts you constructed, you should have 12 charts.  All charts should be properly labelled (title, axis labels, scales).  Set your vertical axis scales and plot area to ensure a balance of comparability across charts against the ability to see variations in the data.

 

Insert the charts into a single document and then present your analysis in Part B.

 

 

 

 

Part B.  Analyzing the data (2 points)

 

Using the 12 charts you prepared in Part A, compare the 2008-09 recession in Canada and the US.  Which experienced the most severe recession?  Which had the fastest recovery?  What particular variables explain the differences in depth and recovery for each recession?  Explain your answer using the evidence from the charts.  You should research other published analysis of the recession of 2007-2008 (with citations) to help add context to your analysis.

The COVID-19 pandemic has initiated a large global recession.  Using research from published sources such as the International Monetary Fund, describe how large the COVID-19 recession is expected to be.  Based on your research, do you believe the COVID-19 recession will be more severe than the one experienced during the Global Financial Crisis?

 

Guidelines for submission

Your answers should be submitted on the Brightspace site – posted by the beginning of class on the due date.  Your answer should be submitted in ONE DOCUMENT (PDF, Google Docs or Microsoft Word).

 

There should be 12 charts.  Charts should be at least 3 inches tall by 5 inches wide.  Under each chart, you should include a source reference, for example:

Statistics Canada.  Table  36-10-0104-01   Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, Canada, quarterly (x 1,000,000), retrieved on May 9, 2019.