Forecasting Using Regression

The purpose of this project is for you to acquire hands-on experience with regression and the application of the tool for forecasting.  You may work as a team, but no more than 3 members in each team. 

I. Design and Planning

A.  Definition of the Unit of Observation and Variables for Observation.

      One of the variables should serve as the dependent variable of your regression.  Develop a list of at least two independent variables that are likely to help forecast the dependent variable.  For example, the number of students in a particular department, the number of classes offered for a particular department, the number of athletes that play a particular sport, and/or the number of games played for a particular sport.

      Variable type: The dependent and independent variables must be quantitative

B.  Definition of the Target Population and your Sampling Method

      Determine the scope of your regression study by defining the target population of all units of observation.  For example, you might select the School of Business Administration or the Baseball team.

II. Data Collection

         Collect a sample of data from the target population. I will explain this further.

III. Data Analysis

     Analyze the data collected, using the following steps:

  1. Based on your prior knowledge or common sense, which independent variable do you think will be the best predictor of the dependent variable?  Which variable is the second best predictor?  The third best?
  2. Apply appropriate statistical analysis to identify the best, the second best and the third best predictors.  Do the results agree with your predictions?
  3. For each independent variable, develop a simple regression to predict the dependent variable. 
  4. Construct a scatterplot of the data.  State your equation in your scatterplot. 
  5. Using your equation, construct a forecast for the next four time periods, i.e., quarters, years, etc.

IV. Writing a Report

      Assume that you work for a company or work as a consultant for a client company that needs to have this data and write a report. The report should be type-written, and double-spaced.  Include in the main text only relevant computer outputs, e.g., scatterplots, visuals, and so on.

  1. Description of the problem
  2. Explain the background.  Why does this project interest you?
  3. Definition of the study unit and the target population
  4. Definition of variables
    1. The dependent variable for prediction
    1. The list of three independent variables.
  5. Explanation of the sampling method
  6. Include appropriate Description and Presentation of Data (In Excel)

a.  Tables

b.  Visuals/Graphs

c.  Quantitative Statistics

  • Include Regression analysis tools (In Excel)

a.   Hypothesis statements

b.   Scatterplot.  Describe the correlation of your data.

c.   Regression equation for each independent variable.  Which is the best predictor?  State your reasoning.

4.  Conclusions

            Observations about the data, results.  What are the possible applications of the regression that you developed?

Develop a list of at least two independent variables that are likely to help forecast the dependent variable. For example, the number of students in a particular department, the number of classes offered for a particular department, 

the dependent variables will be the cost of these classes 

1- i did collect the data for the first independent variable which is the #of students and the cost for 5 years in the attachments this will be in separate schedule 

2- for the second variable : for the #of classes, it will be semiler to the first schedule but #of classes will replace students.

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